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  • Article Check - Should We Try to Beat the Stock Market?

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    nificantly more than 4% to maintain his standard of living and would again run the risk of outliving his money.

    A Better Benchmark

    Instead of using the stock market to benchmark your performance against why not use absolute return? Absolute return means investing your portfolio to achieve your required rate of return while keeping your portfolio as steady as possible. You cannot achieve this outcome by putting all of your money in index funds or in funds that claim to beat the market. Instead, you need a diversified portfoli

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    In the mid-90’s, index funds, mutual funds that invest passively in stock market indexed, began increasing in popularity. They presented arguments that most actively managed mutual funds do not beat the indexes, so if you can’t beat them, join them. Actively managed mutual funds shot back, advertising impressive performance numbers and talking about the advantages of active management. The debate rages to this day, which are better, index funds or actively managed mutual funds? There are good arguments for both sides, but for most individual investors this is the wrong question. Individual investors need to consider whether they should even try to beat the market, for most people the answer is no.

    American’s have a fascination with trying to beat the stock market. From time to time prospective clients will ask me if my firm’s investment performance beats the market. If it doesn’t, they query, wouldn’t they be better off just buying an index fund? The focus on beating the market ignores two key considerations; why we invest and risk.

    Why We Invest

    People usually invest money in stocks or mutual funds because they have a goal (ie. retirement, creating an income stream, etc) that requires a return greater than they could earn by putting their money in the bank. For example, a retiree might need to withdraw 4% from his portfolio every year for income. To keep pace with inflation, he then needs to earn a return of 7%/year (assuming inflation is 3%). If the market averages 4%/year and the retiree averages 5%/year he has beaten the market, but is he happy? No, he may have beaten the stock market but he is running the risk of outliving his money. His goal is a return of 7% regardless of how the market performs.

    Risk

    From 2000-2002 the stock market declined by about 40%. If your portfolio was only down 35% over that period you beat the market, are you happy? Probably not. Investing to beat the market opens you up to large losses should the market decline. What would happen to our retiree who needs to withdraw money from his portfolio every year if his portfolio declined by 35%? He would have to withdraw significantly more than 4% to maintain his standard of living and would again run the risk of outliving his money.

    A Better Benchmark

    Instead of using the stock market to benchmark your performance against why not use absolute return? Absolute return means investing your portfolio to achieve your required rate of return while keeping your portfolio as steady as possible. You cannot achieve this outcome by putting all of your money in index funds or in funds that claim to beat the market. Instead, you need a diversified portfolio

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    vidual investors this is the wrong question. Individual investors need to consider whether they should even try to beat the market, for most people the answer is no.

    American’s have a fascination with trying to beat the stock market. From time to time prospective clients will ask me if my firm’s investment performance beats the market. If it doesn’t, they query, wouldn’t they be better off just buying an index fund? The focus on beating the market ignores two key considerations; why we invest and risk.

    Why We Invest

    People usually invest money in stocks or mutual funds because they have a goal (ie. retirement, creating an income stream, etc) that requires a return greater than they could earn by putting their money in the bank. For example, a retiree might need to withdraw 4% from his portfolio every year for income. To keep pace with inflation, he then needs to earn a return of 7%/year (assuming inflation is 3%). If the market averages 4%/year and the retiree averages 5%/year he has beaten the market, but is he happy? No, he may have beaten the stock market but he is running the risk of outliving his money. His goal is a return of 7% regardless of how the market performs.

    Risk

    From 2000-2002 the stock market declined by about 40%. If your portfolio was only down 35% over that period you beat the market, are you happy? Probably not. Investing to beat the market opens you up to large losses should the market decline. What would happen to our retiree who needs to withdraw money from his portfolio every year if his portfolio declined by 35%? He would have to withdraw significantly more than 4% to maintain his standard of living and would again run the risk of outliving his money.

    A Better Benchmark

    Instead of using the stock market to benchmark your performance against why not use absolute return? Absolute return means investing your portfolio to achieve your required rate of return while keeping your portfolio as steady as possible. You cannot achieve this outcome by putting all of your money in index funds or in funds that claim to beat the market. Instead, you need a diversified portfoli

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    ople usually invest money in stocks or mutual funds because they have a goal (ie. retirement, creating an income stream, etc) that requires a return greater than they could earn by putting their money in the bank. For example, a retiree might need to withdraw 4% from his portfolio every year for income. To keep pace with inflation, he then needs to earn a return of 7%/year (assuming inflation is 3%). If the market averages 4%/year and the retiree averages 5%/year he has beaten the market, but is he happy? No, he may have beaten the stock market but he is running the risk of outliving his money. His goal is a return of 7% regardless of how the market performs.

    Risk

    From 2000-2002 the stock market declined by about 40%. If your portfolio was only down 35% over that period you beat the market, are you happy? Probably not. Investing to beat the market opens you up to large losses should the market decline. What would happen to our retiree who needs to withdraw money from his portfolio every year if his portfolio declined by 35%? He would have to withdraw significantly more than 4% to maintain his standard of living and would again run the risk of outliving his money.

    A Better Benchmark

    Instead of using the stock market to benchmark your performance against why not use absolute return? Absolute return means investing your portfolio to achieve your required rate of return while keeping your portfolio as steady as possible. You cannot achieve this outcome by putting all of your money in index funds or in funds that claim to beat the market. Instead, you need a diversified portfoli

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    k market but he is running the risk of outliving his money. His goal is a return of 7% regardless of how the market performs.

    Risk

    From 2000-2002 the stock market declined by about 40%. If your portfolio was only down 35% over that period you beat the market, are you happy? Probably not. Investing to beat the market opens you up to large losses should the market decline. What would happen to our retiree who needs to withdraw money from his portfolio every year if his portfolio declined by 35%? He would have to withdraw significantly more than 4% to maintain his standard of living and would again run the risk of outliving his money.

    A Better Benchmark

    Instead of using the stock market to benchmark your performance against why not use absolute return? Absolute return means investing your portfolio to achieve your required rate of return while keeping your portfolio as steady as possible. You cannot achieve this outcome by putting all of your money in index funds or in funds that claim to beat the market. Instead, you need a diversified portfoli

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    nificantly more than 4% to maintain his standard of living and would again run the risk of outliving his money.

    A Better Benchmark

    Instead of using the stock market to benchmark your performance against why not use absolute return? Absolute return means investing your portfolio to achieve your required rate of return while keeping your portfolio as steady as possible. You cannot achieve this outcome by putting all of your money in index funds or in funds that claim to beat the market. Instead, you need a diversified portfolio with investments that do not move in the same direction at the same time. For example, you might create a portfolio with a fund that would benefit if interest rates went up, a fund that would benefit if inflation rose, a fund that would benefit if interest rates fell, a fund that would benefit if the market went down, a fund that would benefit if the market went up, a fund that would benefit if oil prices went higher, etc. This type of portfolio would smooth out returns over time and reduce the possibility of significant short-term losses.

    Focusing on beating the market ignores your investment goals and risk. Forget about trying to beat the market. Instead, determine the return you need to reach your goals and design a portfolio for absolute return.

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